‘I'll Know the Recession Is Over When ... ’

The stock market is up. Interest rates are down. Sales of existing homes have jumped. The economy grew in the year’s third quarter. All this has led some people—including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke—to say that the two-year recession has “very likely ended,” although an official declaration probably won’t come for months.

Has the economic bungee cord finally snapped back?

“I wish there was a simple way to boil it down,” says Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist with IHS Global Insight, a business consulting company based in Boston. “But there are a variety of indicators like production, profits, employment and income.”

“It’s sort of like making a soup,” he says. “You throw the ingredients in the pot, blend them and then look at the result. Green soup, the recession is over. Yellow, we’re in a twilight zone. Red, we’re still in trouble.”

While some experts may see a “green soup,” many Americans see the pot bubbling red. Consumer confidence, which had risen last spring, has been stagnant or falling since May. Part of the anxiety is due to persistent unemployment. The rate dropped a scant 0.2 percentage points to 10 percent in November, prompting a hastily convened White House Forum on Jobs and Economic Growth. “Digging ourselves out of the hole ... is not going to be easy,” said President Barack Obama.

Some 15.7 million Americans out of work agree: It doesn’t matter what the economic indicators say. To them, the recession is over when they get a job.

But for others, there are personal benchmarks, ranging from the simple to the serious, about when they think the recession will be over. Here are a few:

“When folks smile again—there’s lots of grim desperation out there along with lots of empty buildings.” —Dave Murrow, public relations consultant, Phoenix.

“When people start building their ugly McMansions again and living beyond their means—that would be terrible.” —Ayako Doi, journalist, Falls Church, Va.

“When my handyman stops finding things to fix in my house. I think maybe he’s breaking stuff just to keep busy.” —Paul Ben-Victor, actor (The Wire, In Plain Sight).

“When I have the confidence that I can get financing and make the payments on a new truck.” —Thomas J. Guldi, electrician, Bridgehampton, N.Y.

“When there’s an increase in sales of men’s underwear, which is an interesting indicator. Since those sales are usually flat, a dip is a bad sign for the economy.” —Bill Patterson, market analyst, Chicago.

“When I stop bringing my own drink and candy to the movies.”—Barry Moltz, author, motivational speaker, Chicago.

“When my son, who recently graduated from college, gets a job and moves out of our home.” —Diane Nygaard, lawyer, Overland Park, Kan.

“When the mailbox contains an unsolicited credit card offer again.”—John L. Herman Jr., author and entrepreneur, Lutherville, Md.

“When we don’t receive 75 job applications for one open position.”—Alicia Munnell, executive director, Center for Retirement Research at Boston CollegeLINK.